Dynamic prediction on the number of influenza-like cases in Gansu province based on data from the influenza sentinel surveillance program, from 2006 to 2011 / 中华流行病学杂志

Objective To understand the epidemiological trend on the number of influenzalike cases and to explore the feasibility of early warning systems of influenza in Gansu province.Methods Based on data from the influenza sentinel surveillance program,a sequence chart was used to analyze the epidemiological trend on the number of influenza-like illness (ILI) cases.Both control chart and mobile percentile method were used to select the threshold of premium alert for the ILI of sentinel surveillance program.Warning effects were assessed by statistical model.Results The prevalence of influenza were both low in 2007 and 2008.Alert thresholds for ILI of Sentinel surveillance was built.The thresholds were higher alert in winter,but lower in summer.Both Seasonal Exponential Smoothing Model and Multiplicative Seasonal ARMA Model (1,1,1) (0,1,0) were used to dynamically predict the weekly percentage of outpatient visits for influenza-like illness (ILI％)of 2011.The concordance rates (predicted=actual) were 100％ for both of them.According to the RMSE values,the dynamically predicted effect of the seasonal exponential smoothing model was superior to ARIMA.Conclusion Dynamic prediction on the number of influenza-like cases could reflect the epidemiological trend of influenza in Gansu province,but with some limitations.

Expression of Notch receptors, ligands and downstream target genes in epidermis of hypertrophic scar / 中华整形外科杂志

<p><b>OBJECTIVE</b>To study the expression of Notch receptors, ligands and downstream target genes in hypertrophic scar and normal skin, and to investigate its role in the development of hypertrophic scar.</p><p><b>METHODS</b>By immunohistochemistry, the expression of epidermal differentiation markers- beta1 integrin, keratin 14 (K14) and keratin 19 (K19), as well as Notch 1-4 and Jagged1 were examined in hypertrophic scars and normal skins. The expression of Notch downstream genes- P21 and P63 was analyzed with real-time quantitative PCR and immunohistochemistry staining.</p><p><b>RESULTS</b>Histological analysis revealed a significant epidermal thickening in the hypertrophic scars, with excessive cell layers above the basal layer. Compared to the normal epidermis, the expression of beta1 integrin, K19 and K14 decreased in hypertrophic scars (P <0.05). Positive expression rate of Notch1 and Jagged1 in keratinocytes was significantly higher in hypertrophic scar than in normal skin (P < 0.05), while there was no difference in Notch2 and 3 positive expression rate. Furthermore, the expression of P21 was significantly up-regulated, while the expression of P63 was down-regulated in keratinocytes of hypertrophic scar (P < 0.05).</p><p><b>CONCLUSIONS</b>Notch signal may play an important role in hypertrophic scar pathogenesis. Over-differentiation of Keratinocytes in hypertrophic scar may be related to the overexpression of Notch1 and Jagged1, up-regulation of P21 gene and down-regulation of P63 gene.</p>